Posted on Monday 3 October 2005 - Popularity: 40%
Aaron Craig from “The Apple Cor” blog wrote down 10 predictions for Apple in 2010 with the intention of discovering others opinions of Apple’s (and the Media/Computing World) future. Here are the predictions:
- 1. OS X market share will be at 15%, maybe even more!
- 2. The iTunes music store will be a media powerhouse, in all sectors
- 3. the iPod will be as ubiquitous as the home computer, maybe even as ubiquitous as the TV!
- 4. Either Google and Apple have joined forces, or Google is Apple’s biggest competitor in the Media Delivery Business, maybe even in the “up and coming” OS sector!
- 5. Apple’s OS X.8 “Saber-Tooth” is released and is the Most Powerful Piece of Software Ever Created, and Increases Apple’s marketshare by 5%.
- 6. There is an Apple store in every city with 200,000 people or more.
- 7. Apple sells an official Steve Jobs-style turtleneck.
- 8. Apple finds a way to make money on premium Podcast content in the ITMS.
- 9. There are rumors of Apple switching chip manufacturers in 2015, or even sooner, if contracts permit.
- 10. Apple ‘lifestyle’ becomes a legitimate political and cultural force.
He gives a bigger explanation of most of the predictions at his blog, so have a visit and maybe leave a comment if you can’t agree with him. 
October 3rd, 2005 at 4:44 pm
11.apple will take over the u.n & world peace will ensue.
12. apple will discover the secret to cold fusion using bits of aluminium and white plastic as catalysts.
13. apple zealots will take over government in all countries with their lightweight ‘different thinking’, the populations will be put to work in a global self-feeding mac-sycophancy blogging loop.
14. Aaron craig will have a sudden realisation that his fluffy minded fantasies are actually a side effect of having a too tight fitting polo neck constricting the flow of blood to his simple little head.
October 3rd, 2005 at 4:49 pm
15. Only one of those 14 predictions will become reality.
Fredi
October 3rd, 2005 at 11:10 pm
Well, soorrreee for trying to make a joke. I too realize that my first 9 predictions were pretty bullish for Apple. The tenth was only half serious. You guys need to lighten up.
- Aaron Craig
October 3rd, 2005 at 11:19 pm
I’ve added the wink smilie to the original post for a reason. However, I think you should have formulated your digg post a bit different.
Fredi
October 3rd, 2005 at 11:41 pm
In what way? Are you offended that I, an irrational moron, would even consider the possibility of offering his own material for discussion?
Am I supposed to have to make a penname? Come on.
My predictions were definite and straightforward. Offer some concrete disagreement.
-A Craig
October 4th, 2005 at 12:35 am
The problem is that it’s just not realistic, even with the reality distortion field in full effect. If you want to start a serious discussion, than you can’t just post dream targets, that’s just not gonna work.
A prediction is only of use if people can say: “Hmmm … maybe that could actualy be the case if everything works out.”, because than you can start to think about all the things that would have to be right to make it happen. But if you start with something completely unrealistic, than at least make it sound funny and entertaining.
Fredi
October 4th, 2005 at 12:38 am
I am being completely serious on all of them except 7 and 10.
You still have not offered rebuttal.
October 4th, 2005 at 1:49 am
Ok, just one example before I go to bed. Point five, OS X 10.8 in 2010, that would meen four OS updates in five years. Steve mentioned that the updates will need more time than in the past, so this one is defenitely not gonna happen.
Fredi
October 4th, 2005 at 1:55 am
OK, but I was thinking November 2010. Leopard will probably be released mid-2006. That gives four years for 4.5-ish years for 3 updates. They can do it.
Even if it is only OS X.7, my point is that by that time, its potential marketshare-grabbing potential will be very high, due to the 120 million+ iPods they will sell in the next four+ years. This halo effect is the reason why Mac sales have grown 20-30 percent in the last 6 months.
October 4th, 2005 at 3:45 pm
Ah the so called halo effect. Never been quite clear on this, is it:
a) a light headed sense of intoxication brought on by inhalation of residual fumes emitted from a g5 packaging box that is still displayed proudly in the workplace when it should have been put in the loft long ago.
b) a light headed sense of frustration & confusion, brought upon by the sudden emotional crash from a state of post-purchase consumer euphoria, when the close proximity within the pocket of keys & easi-scratch screen results in a less than triumphant unveiling of the owners new nano ipod in front of his turtled-necked comrades.
;)
October 4th, 2005 at 6:18 pm
Mike Duguid:
I’m waiting for a serious rebuttal. If I am as delusional as you assert, then I wish to be enlightened.
- A. Craig
October 4th, 2005 at 6:28 pm
Read this for a start.
Fredi
October 4th, 2005 at 10:16 pm
I read this and do not disagree with it.
In summary, the participants in that ’round table’ discussion believe that the intel aspect to future macs will neither help nor hurt the nunmber of macs sold.
I agree that the factor of increased mac sales will NOT be the chip inside.
My claim is that people will switch to Mac because of
1. iPod
2. Microsoft Decline
3. Media Publicity for Macs and iPods/Cultural Awareness of Apple
These are not in conflict with your link.
In fact, I affirm your forum in a way in this prediction:
[quote]
9. There are rumors of Apple switching chip manufacturers in 2015, or even sooner, if contracts permit.
So, in conclusion…’next please.’
October 4th, 2005 at 10:37 pm
Ok, point three:
“Kids spend an average of 4 hours watching TV each day! Children spend more time watching television than in any other activity in their lives except sleep. (So, according to this statistic, our kids are spending more time with TV than in the class room! 54% of kids have a TV in their bedroom. - Mandy did. The average US household has the TV on an average of 7 hours and 40 minutes a day!! Children in America ages 2-17 spend an average of 19 hours and 40 minutes per week watching TV. Parents in America spend an average of 38.5 minutes of their time in meaningful conversation with their kids. TV viewing is so prominent in the US that a child will develop brand loyalty by the age of 2!!”
You seriously think the iPod can match or come close to this stats in just five years?
Fredi
October 4th, 2005 at 11:19 pm
I did not claim that kids would spend as much time using the iPod as the TV.
I predicted that the iPod MIGHT would become as UBIQUITOUS as the TV. Do you know what ubiquitous means?
“ubiquitous” means “in all places”. In modern idiom it means that something/someone is distributed virtually everywhere.
The reason I predict that the iPod has a good chance to match the TV and personal computer market is by the growth in gross sales in the last few months. That number is growing very rapidly. Look for yourself.
In the meantime, look up words whose meaning you don’t know.
October 4th, 2005 at 11:28 pm
I know what ubiquitous means, that was just the only TV stats I’ve found to illustrate how much the TV is present in peoples lifes. Hey, I still know a lot of people that have no idea what an iPod is, but they all know what a TV is and I’m absolutely sure this will not change in just a few years.
Fredi
October 5th, 2005 at 12:32 am
Of course I am not denying the power TV has in American life. I just think that a new era of digital, on-demand media content has become.
Local radio is mostly dead. TV is becoming less popular for news, music, and even content itself now that the web and bitorrent have opened the floodgates.
Just as the typewriter gave way to the electronic word processor (analog-> digital), other analog services (such as TV) will either die, or be transformed into on-demand, digital services.
The iPod is a part of the digital music revolution. The trend of the Digital Revolution is what justifies my claim concerning the iPod.
October 5th, 2005 at 5:44 pm
Aaron, you say you’re waiting for a serious rebuttal, but your projections hold no weight or reasoning of note, and hence my responses have been in humour which I think is the fitting tone to be adopted when reading your eager but adolescent conjecture.
Enthusiasm, bias and blind faith for your favourite company are no substitute for cold hard facts, trying to align the ipod phenomenon with the television is a fantastical and unfounded fantasy which in my mind discredits your other arguments.
The ipod is a niche product whether you like it or not - its major market segment being a portable entertainment device. Like the walkman was before (wonder how many of those are still in use..) It appeals to a mostly young, upmarket crowd. Will all grandads get one? People in poor countries? Without internet? What about people that aren’t that interested in music? What about people that are interested in music, but not on the move? But would all those people have a tv….
now let me think how many people have handheld tv’s compared with standard stay at home ones - yet supposedly there will come a point where all the non-mac infidel will cough up £150 for something they have little interest in?
It’s trivial to destroy your childlike gushing, when viewed objectively.
Anyway, It’s pointless me arguing further global consumer and market trends to you as it would be arguing the existence of god with a fanatical religious zealot; your beliefs hold the same unshakeable but illogical substance.
October 6th, 2005 at 6:31 am
Perhaps you should examine a trend…hmmmm…maybe…
THE TREND OF MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF iPODS BEING SOLD!
Also, the number of iPods sold is multiple times the size of the total amount of Macintosh users. So, apparently some “non-mac infidels” are buying iPods. (Some=multiple millions)
No need to patronize me. I am capable of making inferences concerning world events, my friend.
I am waiting for a rebuttal. And because I am a rational human being, I can comprehend even a complex rebuttal.
Thank You.
You know, I would have thought that I would at least been set riught by now if I was so wrong.
When televisions were released, they were quite expensive. Few people had them. Now, with Apple projected to sell 10 MILLION iPod nanos alone in the next quarter, how long do you think it will take to get into half of American homes? Think about it.
I am not quoting the Aaron Craig Financial Group, I am going by what several major companies (UBS, and others) are projecting. Argue with their predictions as well.
If Apple sells 15 million iPods per quarter (that’s 10 mil nanos, 2.5 mil shuffles,2.5 mil iPod standards; and those are very conservative figures), then this time next year over 80 million iPods have been sold.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod (gives total sold at over 20 millions)
Apple could easily maintain or even increase the current pace of sales depending on the the actual market. But lets say they simply maintain it.
Let’s count, shall we?
15 millions iPods per quarter * 20 quarters in the next 5 years.
What does that equal? oh, that’s right- 300 MILLION iPods SOLD by 2010! How many people are there in the US? According to Wikipedia, there are 297 million.
Now, before you say- “but that would mean every person would buy an iPod”, I will concede that is impossible. However, what is possible is people replacing old iPods, and reselling there old ones. That would allow poorer people to purchase them. Still, I understand that the total sold will be less than the population of the US. However, do poor people have tvs? Most of the time, they have cable!
Now, what is unreasonable about that? It’s not the math.
Yes, I am aware of the big, bad, “cold,hard facts.”
February 20th, 2006 at 8:20 pm
Since my last post on this (which Aaron did an excellent job of failing to answer any of its points) the integration of substantial music player functionality into mobile phones has increased radically. Mobile phones as a tool of course have long ago reached the point of universal absorption into society that Aaron fantasised would happen to his beloved toy. I’d hazard a guess that the linear or increasing sales projections which Aaron suggested, in fact will be accelerated downwards into the long tail that is typical of almost all consumer products that aren’t an essential commodity. You’d have to be a real zealot to carry two devices when you could carry one which a) provides an essential communication function and b)provides the same entertainment capability. While it could be argued that the current generation of music capable phones only supply perhaps 80% of the capabilities of many music devices, I’d wager for many that this is enough, and by the end of this year there’ll be plenty phones that can match any portable media player.